The Bank of Canada decision is Wednesday
The Canadian dollar has been on fire since Bank of Canada officials began to hint at higher interest rates last month. Tomorrow we find out if they deliver.
The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a hike and a 10% chance they leave rates unchanged at 0.50%. The chance of a hike was just 5% in early June but has skyrocketed after a series of hawkish hints.
Assuming it's a done deal, the intrigue in the statement will be about signals for future meetings. The next one is on September 6 and the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a second hike. If they stay on hold then, the probability rises to 51% for October. What's even more impressive is that the market is pricing in a 66.6% of two hikes this year and a 21% chance of three hikes.
It would be a huge turn of events if the BOC ended up hiking interest rates more times than the Fed this year.
USD/CAD is up 25 pips to 0.9683 today.
