What's priced in for the Federal Reserve with the blackout period now in effect

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

We won't hear from Fed members

The market continues to battle over a 25 basis point cut and a 50 basis point cut at the July 31 meeting.

The Fed fund futures market is pegging the chance of 50 bps at 23.5% with 76.5% of 25bps and no chance of anything else.

I find it interesting that FOMC voter Rosengren scheduled an appearance on CNBC late on Friday -- just ahead of the blackout period -- to say that he doesn't want to ease if the economy is doing perfectly well. That almost sounds like he's prepared to dissent in favor of a hold.

Further out, two cuts are 93.5% priced in before year end, with three or more cuts at about 65%.

A year out, the market is right around 62% for four or more cuts.
We won't hear from Fed members
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