What's priced in for the Federal Reserve with the blackout period now in effect
We won't hear from Fed members
The market continues to battle over a 25 basis point cut and a 50 basis point cut at the July 31 meeting.
The Fed fund futures market is pegging the chance of 50 bps at 23.5% with 76.5% of 25bps and no chance of anything else.
I find it interesting that FOMC voter Rosengren scheduled an appearance on CNBC late on Friday -- just ahead of the blackout period -- to say that he doesn't want to ease if the economy is doing perfectly well. That almost sounds like he's prepared to dissent in favor of a hold.
Further out, two cuts are 93.5% priced in before year end, with three or more cuts at about 65%.
A year out, the market is right around 62% for four or more cuts.