Mario Draghi saying the ECB has an “open mind” on negative rates may have got the SNB twitching in their seats. After all they already have banks imposing negative rates on large deposits and they are known to have this policy in their arsenal with tackling the CHF.
So what could the ECB move mean for the swiss franc?
If the ECB are first to the punch in going negative, then obviously money will flow out of the euro looking for better yields. German bunds would be an obvious safe haven but would this mean increased pressure on EUR/CHF?
One of the reasons for negative rates by the ECB is to try to get money flowing through to the real economy rather than being banked right back with them on deposit.
In my view any moves into EUR/CHF will be minimal and the SNB will be on hand to mop it up. Negative is negative in my view and when you want to park your money somewhere you don’t look for the best negative. Banks with cash looking for a home certainly won’t.
With that in mind the EUR/CHF could come under pressure should further talk arise. We’ve already had a peep below 1.2200 and, like all things euro right this minute, we’re well offered.
I’m a buyer any time we drop below 1.22. When I was a reader on ForexLive I continuously liked to point out what a fantastic trade the pair is. When do we, as traders, ever get an institution such as a central bank watching our back?
My strategy has been to start buying around 1.2180 and 50 odd pip intervals as it falls. In the current climate I may start at 1.22 and switch to 20 pip intervals, should we break down.
