Employment/Labor Market:
- Labor market remains tight.
- Labor supply and demand are moving towards a better balance.
- Labor demand still exceeds supply.
- Expects labor market rebalancing to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation.
- Stronger economic activity is the main reason for needing to do more with rates.
- It's good we've seen meaningful rebalancing in the labor market without much increase in unemployment.
- Some softening in the labor market is anticipated.
- Soft landing in the labor market is not guaranteed.
Interest Rates:
- Current policy stance is restrictive.
- The Fed is prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.
- Rates will remain restrictive until inflation is moving down to 2%.
- Real interest rates are meaningfully positive.
- Decision on future rate cuts will be based on the economy's needs.
Inflation:
- Inflation remains well above the 2% long-run goal.
- Strong commitment to return inflation to 2%.
- Reducing inflation may require below-trend growth and some softening of labor conditions.
- Longer-term inflation expectations seem well anchored.
- Three recent inflation readings have been positive, but more data is needed.
GDP/Economic Activity:
- Growth in real GDP has exceeded expectations.
- Consumer spending has been a significant driver of GDP.
- The economy has significant momentum.
- Risks to the economy include strikes, government shutdowns, and higher long-term rates.
- GDP growth stronger than expected might require higher interest rates.
Other Comments:
- The Fed is focused on its dual mandate.
- Decisions will be based on data and risk assessments.
- The Federal Reserve will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
- The goal is to restore price stability for maximum growth potential.
- Energy prices, especially if sustained at high levels, can impact inflation and spending.
- The primary concern is restoring price stability.
- Households are generally in good shape due to a strong labor market and rising wages.
