ANZ forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ahead of the November 29 monetary policy meeting.
- central forecast no longer includes a resumption of hiking, though we still see this as a significant risk
- have pushed out our expectation for cuts by one quarter (to February 2025), with our terminal forecast at 4.75%, still considered contractionary
- Recent data has been a little mixed but overall has gone the RBNZ’s way (particularly key labour market data).
- We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its MPS on 29 November, and to publish an OCR track that is very similar to August (with a peak of 5.59% but potentially later cuts).
- Either a fall or a lift in the OCR track could be justified by the data flow, but strategic considerations to avoid monetary conditions easing over the summer will be important, given the market is itching to price cuts more aggressively.
RBNZ coming up the week after next: