Atlanta Fed

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow initial estimate for Q4 growth debuts at 2.3%. In their own words

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on October 27. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 26 was 4.9 percent, 0.5 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 25.

After two quarters where the Atlanta Fed model landed right on the actual number (amazing), the 0.5% overstatement (5.4% vs 4.9% actual) was still closer to the 4.3% growth rate forecast by the private analysts (0.6% understated).

It is still a long way for the initial release in January 2024, but to start the quarter, the model is still forecasting growth after a solid Q3