Bank of America are forecasting no rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia until 2025.
BoA's assessment says rates have peaked or have nearly down so, citing:
- economy slowing, GDP barely positive in Q3 2023
- unemployment rising, hit an 18 month high in November
- households are trimming back on spending
- supply of labour is beginning to rise more rapidly than employment growth, this will place downward pressure on wages
- sticky inflation will prompt the RBA to hold borrowing costs high
- “Australia will have an elongated flat cycle, still in expansion but below trend”
- and absent a "significant shock, the economy doesn’t tend to go into recession”
