Bank of America are forecasting no rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia until 2025.

BoA's assessment says rates have peaked or have nearly down so, citing:

  • economy slowing, GDP barely positive in Q3 2023
  • unemployment rising, hit an 18 month high in November
  • households are trimming back on spending
  • supply of labour is beginning to rise more rapidly than employment growth, this will place downward pressure on wages
  • sticky inflation will prompt the RBA to hold borrowing costs high
  • “Australia will have an elongated flat cycle, still in expansion but below trend”
  • and absent a "significant shock, the economy doesn’t tend to go into recession”