An analyst note from Barclays on Friday last week on the cascade lower for bonds:

  • “There is no magic level of yields that, when reached, will automatically draw in enough buyers to spark a sustained bond rally,”
  • “In the short term, we can think of one scenario where bonds rally materially. If risk assets fall sharply in the coming weeks.”
  • “The magnitude of the bond selloff has been so stunning that stocks are arguably more expensive than a month ago, from a valuation standpoint”

  • “We believe that the eventual path to bonds’ stabilizing lies through a further re-pricing lower of risk assets.”


  • The Fed is unlikely to dial back its quantitative tightening program (and thus the Fed will remain a net seller of Treasuries)
  • The increase in bond supply due to the rising deficit is also driving up the term premium


US 10 year yields, weekly candles:

ust 10 year yields 13 November 2023

On the bright side, the yield has backed off from 5%