The poll shows that no economists are anticipating a rate hike before the end of June. But 21 of 61 economists do see that rates could rise during Q3 this year. Meanwhile, 17 of 55 economists forecast that rates will be raised during Q4 instead. The median forecast sees the upper end of the overnight call rate at 0.25% in Q4 and staying there until late 2025.
Of a smaller sample size of 36 economists who provided a specific forecast on when the BOJ might move, 19% are seeing a move in July. But October is the favourite, with roughly 36% expecting a move then. Meanwhile, 31% are seeing the BOJ move in "2025 or later".
With regards to the Japanese yen, nearly all economists (91%) say that Tokyo will step in at some point to stop the currency from weakening further.
As for the levels they expect, 16 of 21 economists expect action at 155 for USD/JPY. The remainder see a move at 156 (2), 157 (1), and 158 (2) instead.
