The ECB is increasingly teeing up a rate cut in the March-June window.

  • We now have a credible prospect that inflation will return to 2% in 2025
  • The only piece that's missing is the conviction that wage growth will adapt to lower inflation
  • As soon as that piece of the puzzle falls in place, we will be able to lower interest rates a bit

The eurozone is already in recession or very close. They should be cutting already.