Updated view following Thursday's strong inflation results for the US. GS was previously at 5 hikes this year.

That is a hike at each meeting still to come this year:

  • “We are raising our Fed forecast to include seven consecutive 25bp rate hikes at each of the remaining FOMC meetings in 2022
  • We continue to expect the FOMC to hike three more times at a gradual once-per-quarter pace in 2023 Q1-Q3 and to reach the same terminal rate of 2.5-2.75%, but earlier.
  • We see the arguments for a 50bp rate hike in March. The level of the funds rate looks inappropriate, and .. concerns about falling into a wage-price spiral deserve to be taken seriously.”
fed 2022 calendar