• The peak is now seen in Q1 compared to Q2 previously
  • 29 of 42 economists see a 50 bps hike on Feb 2 (would bring rates to 4.00%)
  • 13 economists see 25 bps on Feb 2
  • Median forecast for March is 25 bps
  • Market pricing currently 70% for 50 bps and 30% for 25 bps
  • 20 of 24 economists said greater risk was more hikes
  • Economists see GDP -0.3% this quarter and next.

The BOE's Bailey said last week there was more optimism about the prospects for falling inflation this year and noted that the BOE hadn't pushed back against market expectations.

The pound is underperforming today after a soft services PMI and is trading at the lows, down 88 pips to 1.2285.