Federal Reserve FOMC building 2
  • Six-month core PCE rose at at annual 2.5% rate
  • Inflation measured over relatively short periods may exaggerate idiosyncratic, temporary factors
  • Labor market has remained relatively tight, demand has eased, supply has trended higher
  • Wage gains slowed in 2023, but remain above pace consistent with 2% inflation
  • Risks to achieving Fed's goals moving into better balance
  • Not appropriate to reduce target range until we have greater confidence inflation moving to 2%
  • Ongoing softening of labor demand and improvements in labor supply should contribute to a further slowing in core services price inflation

This report is more of a review than a tool to signal what's coming on policy.