The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is due at 1400 US Eastern time on Wednesday, January 31

The consensus is for the Committee to leave the Fed Funds rate on hold at 5.25-5.50%

The consensus is also for the first rate cut to come in Q2, although late in Q1 is well-sipported also.After this week the Committee met again on March 19-20.

Goldman Sachs have been tipping a March cut for some time, and still are:

We continue to expect ... 5 cuts in total in 2024

GS cite two main planks for their view:

  • progress on inflation has already surpassed the threshold the FOMC has given

Goldman Sachs says the Fed won't waiting for inflation to hit 2% before cutting, they'll cur prior to the number being in the data.

  • while the labor market is providing "additional reasons for the FOMC to cut sooner rather than later"
Goldman Sachs fomc preview 29 January 2024 2