Fed's Barkin
Fed's Barkin
  • Services in particular still feel they can raise prices
  • Latest retail sales point to 'good but not great' consumer spending
  • CPI still not where the Fed is trying to get
  • CPI 'is not terrible'
  • The overall labor market to me is normalizing
  • Jobless claims are historically low but edging up
  • The except in the labor market is skilled trades, which are quite tight
  • There is a lot of catch up in services now, cities insurance
  • I still there is a lot of movement on the services side but it will take time
  • I think we're on the right path but it's going to take a bit more time
  • The question now is how long rates need to be held where they are to get the required impact on inflation
  • Labor force participation for women under-5 is at highs, perhaps because of remote work
  • Labor force participation for women over-65 is dropping, perhaps as they take care of grandchildren

I don't take away much from this but he was strident that rates would need to be held 'longer' but it's hard to say how long he means and it will be dictated by the data.