• Inflation has come down a lot, should continue
  • Economy has been resilient
  • But business contacts say a slowdown is coming
  • Not going to see a recession, inflation will go to 2%
  • Don't think there will be rate cuts before middle of next year
  • Economy still has a lot of momentum
  • Inflation will ebb slowly; Fed will need to be cautious, patient and resolute

As always is the case, you don't really have to talk about the R-word unless there is a risk of it materialising. So, that sort of speaks for itself. But among all the major economies, it does seem like the Fed is best prepared to weather a slowdown at the moment.