• Financial stress is relatively low
  • Financial conditions have become tighter

Here were the highlights from his comments on March 24

  • US remains in a position to see disinflation in 2023, will see if Fed needs to react more or not
  • Expects Fed will be dealing more with the strong economy into the spring and summer months and not worrying as much about financial stresses
  • Could be downside if financial stress gets worse and would react to that
  • Wide variety of jobs data pointing to continued strong labor market
  • In most likely scenario, Fed will have to 'ratchet up' more as financial stress abates and economy remains strong
  • Sees 80% chance financial stress abates and discussion shifts back to inflation; a lower-probability outcome is recession
  • Probability of global crisis from recent stress is low