- 3.75-4.00% is my target for year end
- Current level isn't high enough to be serious about putting downward pressure on inflation
- You need to have a 3-handle to do that
- It's a volatile environment so I don't want to promise anything about next year
- My baseline is that inflation will be more-persistent than many on Wall Street think
- Risk is that we have to be higher for longer
- I don't take many signals from equities in setting policy, can be driven by silicon valley
- I don't think recessions are all that predictable
- There will be a debate at some point about how long you want to linger above 2% before taking action but first we have to get it moving in the right direction
