Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

Headlines via Reuters:

  • My policy rate expectation is consistent with March FOMC meeting policymaker projections
  • If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as i am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate
  • Expect disinflationary trend to continue
  • Policy is currently restrictive, and my baseline expectation is that disinflation will continue without a broad economic slowdown
  • Such an outcome is not assured
  • Inflation progress has sometimes been bumpy
  • Annual core PCE at 2.8% represents 'considerable progress' but is still 'meaningfully above' Fed's 2% target
  • Data on new tenant rent agreements suggest that housing inflation broadly will continue to cool
  • Continued disinflation will indeed require further progress in housing and non-housing services
  • Labor market has moved into better balance
  • Suspect strong population growth 'helps resolve the puzzle' of labor market growth and strong consumption even as inflation eases
  • Important that wage growth be consistent with 2% inflation over time; US is moving back toward that kind of wage growth
  • Anchored inflation expectations are evident in consumer and business surveys
  • Expect consumption growth to slow some this year
  • Consumer spending was soft in January and February, suggesting we are on track for lower consumption growth in q1 vs second half of 2023
  • Expect GDP growth this year to be solid but slower than 2023 pace of 3.1%
  • My baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment
  • Appears supply networks are adapting to port of Baltimore disruption

Bolding above is mine. 'Meaningfully above' doesn't sound to me like we get a rate cut in two months. But, I've been like a broken record on this (kids, ask an oldie what being a broken record means).

Fed's Kugler
Fed's Kugler