Powell March 29 2024
Powell today

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking at the San Francisco Fed in a moderated discussion with Marketplace host Kai Ryssdal. This page will be updated live with new comments as they come.

  • Says today's data was 'good to see'
  • To get confidence on inflation we want to get more good reading on inflation like the ones last year

I find it notable that he didn't highlight this report but 'last year'.

  • We didn't overreact to good data in H2 last year
  • You won't see us overreacting to the last two months' data
  • Risks are too sided, the first cut is a very important decision
  • The economy is strong, we see very strong growth
  • We don't need to be in a hurry to cut
  • We've divided our critics into equal-sized piles
  • Monetary policy is well-placed to react to different data
  • I have scheduled calls with every voter and non-voter before every meeting, sometimes twice

There is a slightly-more hawkish tone from Powell. He hasn't yet said they're on track to cut rates this year.

  • We would hold rates for longer if inflation doesn't come down (note, no reference to hikes)
  • We expect inflation to come down as our base case
  • We don't know where rates are going back to when this whole thing is over
  • My own expectation is that we won't get to the very low levels before the pandemic (rates were at 1.50-1.75% in late 2019)
  • If we were to see unexpected weakness in labor market that could draw a policy response
  • Slowing balance sheet runoff is not in any way related to a view of the economy