This is not breaking news, the Goldman Sachs note was out earlier this week. But, given the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is due later today, Wednesday, 22 March 2023, posting some points from it now.
The TL;DR version is that Goldman Sachs say:
- "We expect the FOMC to pause at its March meeting this week because of stress in the banking system"
- “While policymakers have responded aggressively to shore up the financial system, markets appear to be less than fully convinced that efforts to support small and midsize banks will prove sufficient.”
Goldman says the no hike today is just a pause and does not necessarily signal the end of the hiking cycle:
- “ ... a pause in the inflation fight, but that should not be such a problem. Bringing inflation back to 2% is a medium-term goal, which the FOMC expects to solve only gradually over the next two years. The FOMC can get back on track quickly if appropriate, and the banking stress could have disinflationary effects.”
Last week I posted a view from Goldman Sachs on the banking stress, GS saying it would see reduced lending which is in effect a tightening in financial conditions and:
- the effect of tightening would have the same impact on demand growth as would an interest rate hike of 25 to 50 basis points
A hike is still the consensus:
The times in the left-most column are GMT. The equivalents in US Eastern time are:
- 2 pm
- and 2.30 pm