• German economy is already contracting
  • Situation to get worse as gas consumption is cut or rationed
  • The economy is likely to shrink even if outright rationing is avoided
  • Economic activity may pull back somewhat this quarter and shrink markedly in autumn, winter months

The bright spot is that they do not expect the adverse scenario published in June, which saw the economy contracting by 3.2% next year, to materialise at least. But nonetheless, a looming recession will keep the dark clouds hanging over the euro in the months ahead and the gas/energy crisis will only be amplified again next year.