A weekend note from Goldman Sachs on their Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outlook, in brief:

  • Inflation has been firmer in recent months, but we think it is still on track to fall enough by the June FOMC meeting for a first cut
  • This has become less obvious though, and our inflation path for the rest of the year is now in a range where small surprises could have large consequences
  • We now expect 3 cuts in 2024 (vs. 4 previously), mainly because of the slightly higher inflation path
  • We continue to expect 4 cuts in 2025 and now expect 1 final cut in 2026
Goldman Sachs