Yesterday we had the latest official inflation report from Australia:
Responses so far:
- AUD - decline in inflation should be enough to keep the RBA on hold at their next meeting
- ICYMI - NAB changed forecast for RBA next week to 'on hold' (prior was +25bp rate hike)
Via Goldman Sachs, also trimming rate hike forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- lowered their terminal RBA rate forecast to 4.6% (previously at 4.8%)
But still expecting a rate hike next week (the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is August 1), citing:
- We acknowledge material risk that the RBA remains on hold in August, but lean slightly towards another hike given still elevated underlying and services inflation, the stronger-than-expected labour market, and the rapidly reflating housing market.
- We expect a final hike in November alongside finalisation of the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy – which we expect will effectively require the RBA to target a lower inflation target … that is, 2.5 per cent, rather than allowing the top of the 2-3 per cent target band.