The Bank of Japan June meeting Summary of Opinions has dropped a couple of bombshells:

  • There is strong chance consumer inflation will moderate, but won't slow back below 2%, toward middle of current fiscal year
    • "Although the rise in raw material prices has paused, firms' pass-through of cost increases to their selling prices has intensified further, the employment and income situation has improved, and inbound tourism demand has recovered. Given this, inflationary pressure is likely to remain strong for the time being"
    • "Corporate behavior has seen clear changes, and price and wage hikes have been incorporated into corporate strategy"
    • "due attention is required because the possibility that the persistence of price rises in Japan has been underestimated cannot be ruled out, as were the cases with Europe and the United States"
  • One member called for early revision of YCC policy

And this, underlining is mine:

boj summary Bank of Japan ycc change pivot 26 June 2023

Looks to me like the July meeting is being tee'd up for a YCCC change/abandonment. This is the clearest sign of change I've seen from the Bank of Japan on the YCC question.