J.P.Morgan has revised its interest rate outlook for the European Central Bank.


  • JPM expect the first rate cut in June, having previously expected the first in September.
  • the ECB ho hold in July
  • and then cuts in both September and October


  • JPM expect a total of 100bps in cuts, having previously expected 75

Analysts at the firm are wary of the trend in core inflation, saying its recent slowing may be the result of the dissipating of transitory factors and making the trend difficult to discern:

  • They point to stronger wage data as a factor that cause some inflation "stickiness".
  • Say that the disruption to shipping due to Red Sea attacks could also add to pressure for higher inflation


JPM are calling the first ECB rate cut later than many other analysts are. Market pricing is for the April meeting (see below).


The ECB dates to watch this year:

ecb dates 2024