Summary points from JP Morgan's 2024 US Economic Outlook

  • The economy easily avoided recession in 2023, but labor market activity has been slowing
  • We look for momentum to slow further into 2024 as growth slips below trend...
  • ...and the economy walks a fine line between expansion and contraction
  • Drags from monetary policy will persist, and in some cases build, into 2024
  • We expect fiscal support from recent years will turn to a modest fiscal drag in 2024
  • We see real GDP up 0.7% in 2024, down from near-3% in 2023 (%q4/q4)
  • Job growth is expected to slow, and the unemployment rate to continue its recent upward trend
  • Wage inflation should moderate further next year in a softer labor market
  • Inflation trends are already cooling: a softer labor market should bring more moderation
  • Core PCE inflation to be up 2.4% in 2024. down from 3.4% in 2023 (%q41 q4)
  • With slowing job growth, and further disinflation, we think the FOMC will stay on hold for a while
  • FOMC to start lowering rates in H2 of 2024 to avoid a recession, with inflation close to, but still above, target
Goldman Sachs outlook for the Fed is here:  Q1 2022 taper, rate hike 2024