- We're forecasting small increases in growth but that doesn't rule out a couple negative quarters
- Rate hikes are feeding through, you can see it very clearly in the housing market. You can also see it on consumer spending on big ticket items
- Surveys tell us that households are going to cut back on discretionary spending
- The implied expectation in the market that we're going to cut later in the year doesn't look like the most-likely scenario to us
- Recent data has reinforced our view that we expect inflation to fall to around 3% this summer, that's a pretty rapid decline
- Wage have not started to moderate, we're watching that
- Don't plan on inflation staying high
- We need to see some easing in the labor market
- When you talk to firms, they're seeing some easing in the labor market
- We will take future interest rate decisions in the future
He pushed back on the 25 bps of cuts priced into the market by year end, but he didn't push too hard.
