The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting is on 4 July. We'll get the decision and the Statement from RBA Governor Lowe at 2.30 Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time.
Earlier previews:
- ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike
- After Australia's better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike
- Westpac reaffirms its forecst for a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on July 4
FWIW I think the hawkish position of Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock indicate a rate hike tomorrow:
- RBA Dep Gov Bullock says employment and economy need to grow below trend for a while
- RBA Dep Gov Bullock says higher rates are the only tool the RBA has to curb inflation
Economists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia are tipping an 'on hold' decision though. In brief from their preview:
- In what is likely to be another finely balanced decision, we expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.10% in July, pausing before one final rate hike in August.
- The RBA has stated that the June meeting was finely balanced, with the rate hike driven by upside inflation risks.
- The lower-than-expected monthly CPI print for May has, in our view, tilted the balance of risks to an on hold decision in July.
- But the July RBA Board meeting remains ‘live’ given the RBA’stightening bias and heightened concerns over inflation risks
- We attach a 60% probability of on hold decision at the July RBA Board meeting, with a 40% chance of a 25bphike.
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The current rate of inflation and cash rate in Australia, from the front page of the RBA website:
