The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting is on 4 July. We'll get the decision and the Statement from RBA Governor Lowe at 2.30 Sydney time, which is 0430 GMT and 0030 US Eastern time.

Earlier previews:

FWIW I think the hawkish position of Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock indicate a rate hike tomorrow:

Economists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia are tipping an 'on hold' decision though. In brief from their preview:

  • In what is likely to be another finely balanced decision, we expect the RBA to leave the cash rate on hold at 4.10% in July, pausing before one final rate hike in August.
  • The RBA has stated that the June meeting was finely balanced, with the rate hike driven by upside inflation risks.
  • The lower-than-expected monthly CPI print for May has, in our view, tilted the balance of risks to an on hold decision in July.
  • But the July RBA Board meeting remains ‘live’ given the RBA’stightening bias and heightened concerns over inflation risks
  • We attach a 60% probability of on hold decision at the July RBA Board meeting, with a 40% chance of a 25bphike.


The current rate of inflation and cash rate in Australia, from the front page of the RBA website:

rba cash rate inflation 30 June 2023