Jerome Powell releasing a white dove
  • Far too early to declare a soft landing
  • I have always felt there was a possibility economy would avoid recession
  • There's always a possibility of recession next year
  • Little basis for thinking there's a recession now
  • There was a general expectation that rate cuts will be a topic of conversation going forward

The moves in the market has been huge. USD/JPY is down 225 pips on the day now and 2-year yields down 25 bps. This might be the last chance to get 4% 10-years, which is wild given that they were above 5% just six weeks ago.


  • We are pleased with progress but need to see further progress on inflation
  • Fair to say that there is a lot of uncertainty
  • There is a back-and-forth with market pricing
  • In the long run, it's important that market conditions become aligned with policy
  • People will have different forecasts on economy
  • We're still well above 3% on core PCE