Reuters reporting on their poll of expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday, October 3 (statement due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 0330* GMT and 2330* US Eastern time):

  • All but two of 32 economists in a Sept. 27-28 poll expected the RBA to hold its official cash rate at 4.10% at the October meeting
    • Two forecast a 25 basis-point hike.

Barclays expects a hike in November, following the official quarterly CPI data on October 25

  • "One month's higher inflation print especially driven by oil is unlikely to sway the RBA to hike. Indeed, trimmed inflation actually slowed...suggesting the Bank has more reason to be on hold,"
  • "Opposing trends in terms of rising services inflation, easing goods inflation, softer growth and relatively easier but still tight labour markets will likely keep the RBA focused on data. While we do expect one more hike from the Bank, it is a close call with the risk being the hiking cycle is over."

17 of 30 predict the RBA would raise rates to 4.35% or higher by the end of 2023

  • remaining 13 forecast no change


* Sydney switches to daylight saving time on October 1.

rba cash and inflation rates 29 September 2023

RBA cash and inflation rates