The Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).

Headlines via Reuters:

  • Some further tightening may be required
  • Board considered raising rates at August meeting, decided stronger case was to hold steady
  • Policy has been tightened significantly, full impact has yet to be felt
  • Board mindful of lags in policy, painful financial squeeze on some households
  • Board keen to preserve gains made in labour market
  • Tightening could provide some further insurance against upside inflation risks

RBA trims GDP growth and inflation forecasts for end 2023, most others little changed

  • Forecasts GDP end 2023 0.9%, end 2024 1.6%, end 2025 2.3%
  • Forecasts CPI at end 2023 4.1%, end 2024 3.3%, end 2025 2.8%
  • Forecasts unemployment end 2023 3.9%, end 2024 4.4%, end 2025 4.5%,

Full text is here:


What's the SoMP?

The RBA's Statement on Monetary Policy:

  • It outlines the bank's views on domestic and international economic conditions.
  • also provides an analysis of the bank's policy decisions and an outlook for inflation and output growth.
  • published quarterly
  • It typically includes:
    • An overview of the global and domestic economic situation, which incorporates various factors such as growth, inflation, employment, and monetary and fiscal policies of key countries.
    • Information about financial markets, which details changes in asset prices, exchange rates, and monetary policy settings worldwide.
    • Domestic economic conditions, which provides a comprehensive analysis of key indicators including GDP, consumer spending, business investments, the labor market, and housing market.
    • Forecasts for domestic economic activity and inflation, typically for a period of two years ahead. And an assessment of the balance of risks surrounding these forecasts.


rba rate hike cycle 01 August 2023

The hiking cycle began in May 2022 and there are thoughts it may be complete. Some are still tipping another hike though, likely in November.