These summary points are from Kiwi Bank, their Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview.

  • The RBNZ will again decide on the level of interest rates next week. Will they cry wolf, again? Or will they bite, and hike? For the RBNZ, it’s about maintaining pressure on households and businesses until inflation is back at 2%. They’ve shown us their teeth, and at best they will continue to warn us of the risks of inflation.
  • We expect the RBNZ to hold the cash rate at 5.5%, it’s high enough. And they will maintain a very forceful, hawkish bias. But it is a bit like crying wolf. Being hawkish is one thing, delivering a hike is another (bite).
  • It’s all about market pricing. The RBNZ emphasized their zero-tolerance for upside surprises on inflation in November. And although inflation is falling, domestically generated pricing is proving sticky. Market traders largely ignored the RBNZ’s warnings in November. And there is a risk, if the RBNZ pauses again, interest rates will fall in anticipation of cuts.


ANZ expect a rate hike:


The RBNZ announcement is due at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday February 28:

  • 0100 GMT
  • 1900 US Eastern time (on the 27th)
rbnz dates H1 2023