In brief from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research 'Shadow Board' recommendation for this week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting:

  • Most Shadow Board members recommend the Reserve Bank should keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50 percent in the upcoming July Monetary Policy Review.
  • While inflation pressures are still high and the labour market remains strong, the slowing in demand and economic activity and expectations for previous OCR increases to work their way through the New Zealand economy warrant a hold on further tightening.
  • However, one member recommended a 25-basis point increase, reflecting the view that inflation is sticky.

More here if you are interested

rbnz dates 2023 3

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand statement is due at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday July 12:

  • which is 0200 GMT
  • and 10 pm US Eastern time on Tuesday July 11


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand 'shadow board' is put together by the NZIER (the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

  • Its Monetary Policy Shadow Board is independent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
  • the shadows do not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.
  • The Shadow Board aims to: encourage informed debate on each interest rate decision help inform how a Board structure might operate explore how Board members could use probabilities to express uncertainty