The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet on Wednesday 4 October (New Zealand time), the statement is due at 2 pm NZ time:

  • 0100 GMT
  • 2100 US Eastern time (on Tuesday, 3 October)

From the NZIER Shadow Board, in very brief:

  • Most Shadow Board members recommended the Reserve Bank should hold the OCR at 5.50 percent in the upcoming October Monetary Policy Review.
    • The full impact of interest rate increases has yet to be transmitted to the broader New Zealand economy.
  • Two members recommended a 25 basis-point hike in the OCR in October.
    • The view was that, with upside risks to inflation appearing more crystalised recently, the Reserve Bank should increase the OCR sooner rather than later if it still expects to start cutting the OCR later next year.


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand 'shadow board' is put together by the NZIER (the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)

  • Its Monetary Policy Shadow Board is independent of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
  • the shadows do not represent what the RBNZ is going to do but rather what their view is that the RBNZ should do. That is, the Shadows do not preview what they think will happen, but what they think should happen.
  • The Shadow Board aims to: encourage informed debate on each interest rate decision help inform how a Board structure might operate explore how Board members could use probabilities to express uncertainty
rbnz October 2023 policy meeting preview

Earlier preview of the meeting here: