The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its key interest rate at 4.35% for a third straight meeting on Tuesday and at least until end-September.

That's the result showing from Reuters poll ahead of the RBA meeting. All 40 economists polled forecast that the RBA would keep its official cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on March 19.

After September the expectation is for two cuts in Q4.

Says Taylor Nugent, senior economist at NAB:

  • "We are seeing below-trend growth and so we think unless we get a large upside surprise, it's more a matter of how long they have to wait and stay in restrictive territory rather than being pushed higher. We certainly don't think the RBA is going to be in a position to cut rates for some time yet"
  • "For the March meeting, we don't expect the RBA to change their communication too much. Data has come broadly in line with what they expect and we think they'll need to see more evidence on the domestic inflation picture before really updating their view,"


  • CBA and Westpac see the first rate cut in September
  • ANZ and NAB forecast it in November
rba inflation 01 February 2024 2