I posted this from ANZ yesterday:
This now via Westpac, in summary points:
- We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR at 5.5% at its May Monetary Policy Statement.
- The RBNZ will likely remain comfortable with the forward outlook communicated in the February Monetary Policy Statement.
- We don’t see a significant change in the RBNZ’s projections for the OCR – easing still looks like a 2025 affair.
- Weaker than expected GDP growth and numerous indications of a flat economy should trigger a downward adjustment in the 2024 growth profile.
- But the inflation outlook remains challenging as a non-tradables driven upward inflation surprise in Q1 2024 likely implies a still elevated near-term inflation outlook.
- Market views of OCR easing as early as October are unlikely to find support.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is next week, May 22.
- Statement due at 2pm New Zealand time, which is 0200 GMT and 2200 US Eastern time on Tuesday.
