I posted on this last week, referencing a post from back in June when intervention talk was all the rage also:

Via eFX, Citi with similar:

"Based on our rough understanding from past FX-interventions by the MoF, there are four stages of language before an actual intervention occurs.

  • Stage 1: Excessive and disorderly movement in exchange rates is undesirable.
  • Stage 2: We will closely monitor movements in exchange rates.
  • Stage 3: We will take determined actions if necessary.
  • Stage 4. We have just carried out an intervention (on the implementation)," Citi notes.

"Finance Minister Suzuki's expression regarding "necessary action" this Wednesday is half a step forward from the June statement, but we do not think it represents a transition to the stage three. In other words, we think that Japanese authorities are still at the stage two," Citi adds.

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USD/JPY lower from option-related selling ahead of 145 mid-week and also on more determined jawboning from the MoF and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda on Friday:

usdyen barrier options 12 September 2022