UBS is bullish on the Australian dollar in 2024, citing " compelling domestic reasons for AUD resilience":

  • long AUD remains somewhat of a value proposition
  • commodity prices have been resilient despite a still uninspiring China backdrop

On the RBA:

  • "We think that additional tightening is very unlikely at this stage"
  • "Tone of Governor Bullock's press conference was somewhat hawkish, which should be seen as AUD-supportive in the context of the RBA needing to reaffirm some of its inflation-fighting credentials"
  • UBS expect the first RBA cut in August 2024, but says the risk is for later ... see 25bp cuts per quarter to follow