The headline to this post is an immediate question that popped up when I read this from a Barclays note:

  • “Surging real rates and a stronger dollar are unfriendly to risk assets. Absent a circuit breaker to the bond market, equities may continue to struggle, as rising x-asset volatility prompts more de-risking and cash is the only place to hide.”

Lower yields, and lower oil, added to positive sentiment that gave a boost to 'risk' in Wednesday trade. But, yeah, is this the circuit breaker a pause for the bears to regroup?


  • “The growth-policy trade-off is tricky, as policy transmission works with a lag, so central banks are unlikely to blink in a hurry, unless something breaks. Meanwhile, markets are starting to pay attention to fiscal risks, which means pressure on sovereign yields may be here to stay”

Daily candles below, is that final one (Wednesday's) enough to signal a top is in? Let me know in the comments. Any other bond comments, technical analysis or otherwise, welcome also!

us 10 year yield 05 October 2023