An Reserve Bank of Australia forecast from WPAC focused on the upcoming meeting on November 7.
- Inflation is declining, but not fast enough for the RBA to hold rates unchanged, given their recent rhetoric.
- There are arguments either side, so this month's expected rate rise does not necessarily imply that rates will increase again in December.
- Has the RBA seen enough to move? At 1.2% in the quarter, both headline and trimmed mean inflation was a little higher than the Westpac team expected.
- We assessed that it would take a significant upside surprise to induce the RBA Board to raise rates at the November meeting. A 0.1% difference might not seem like a lot, but the underlying detail was sobering.
The note is via Westpac's new Chief Economist, Luci Ellis. Ellis was previously the Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position she held since December 2016. News of her departure from the Bank crossed in July.
Its usually a good idea to pay heed to recently departed central banks that have landed in the private sector. The insight into the Bank that they have is fresh, as are their contacts.
- RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 - will they hike again in December?
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- ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)
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- Australian Q3 2023 Headline CPI +1.2% q/q (vs. 1.1% expected)