Preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia April meeting Minutes today from Barclays and UBS:
Barclays:
- We look for signaling this week on the RBA's intentions in the April board minutes.
- The surprisingly strong March employment report and broad USD weakness have held back the AUD's slide, even though Chinese activity data were poor.
- However, we continue to see downside risks to AUD.
- The probability of a May rate cut as implied by the OIS market has fallen to 56% from more than 75% earlier, but post employment report comments by RBA officials suggest that the Board may look past the one month of strong labour market data.
- We think the RBA will still anticipate a weaker labour market this year.
- Therefore, we continue to expect a rate cut in May, although the probability of a cut is lower than we previously thought.
UBS:
- RBA minutes will be scrutinized for any clues on the timing of the next rate cut.
- The minutes should reiterate their easing bias but are unlikely to add any new detail given it is just ahead of the Q1 CPI release.
Earlier preview here