I am going through the archive of posts to better organize them, and stumbled across a post from “Chase” who was a guest commentator (are you out there Chase?) toward the end of 2013.
I bring it up because Chase made some year end predictions that were published on December 20th, 2013.
Year end predictions usually don’t work out simply because it is often the unexpected that move the markets the most.
In this case, I thought Chase did a pretty good job. So I thought I would re-share his thoughts.
Chase is the man
If you want to read the original post, CLICK HERE.
Here is the summary of his predictions and success/failure grade
1. The road for the dollar will be bumpy, but uphill
CHECK. I give Chase credit for this one. The dollar index spend the first half of 2014 moving up and down with no discernible trend. Then in July/August things started to heat up and the dollar ended the year at the highs.
US dollar index, bumpy and then higher.
2. The crisis in the Eurozone periphery will deepen
Chase commented about an article written by Matthew Lynn titled :Greece leaving the euro could be the spring surprise
The main point Lynn makes is that Greece couldn’t exit the Eurozone last year – it couldn’t afford to. But now they can and if Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras comes to power, they will.
My prediction is that it’s only a matter of time before a threatened exit of a periphery member, or a bailout or a government collapse or another Bunga Bunga party hits the headlines.
Well, the election is January 25 and Syriza leader Tsipras is in the thick of things (Alexis Tsipras or Antonis Samaras? Greece begins to weigh up the options)
It was not spring but the macro view is correct. CHECK
3. The UK’s recovery will not be as swift as we’ve been led to believe
CHECK.
The average man on the street is still having a bit of a hard time. I know, because I am one. People are getting by but nobody has spare cash.
4. Gold will see what life is like below $1,000, and it will spark an Emerging Market panic
NO CHECK. The first prediction that did not pan out. Gold traded as low as 1131 but took until November to get there. The high pushed 1400 on Russia tension
5. 120.20 Will be the year’s high for USD/JPY
CHECK. 121.83 was the actual high. On December 20 when he wrote the article it was at 104.00
USDJPY makes it to 120.20 in 2014
6. Long Facebook, Short Twitter, and buy Google for your grandchildren
CHECK
FB. From $55 to $78 at year end. Yep.
TWTR: From $60 to $35 at year end. Yep
GOOG:; From $550 to $530. GOOG was more like kissing your sister vs, paying for the grandkids college education, but I assume the grandkids still have a few more years to reap the benefits from GOOG
7. 2014 will be the year when useful AI and wearable computing begin to emerge
I don’t know about this one, but who cares, he did a great job in his predictions..
The most practical applications are in medicine and sports science, and the military – and these areas get a lot of funding.
As for Artificial Intelligence, we already use “narrow” AI (those designed for a specific task) all the time. We use them when our car brakes for us, or we search the internet, or ask Siri to “Call me a hamburger Putin puck no man”. It will get better very quickly, and if you’re into tech stocks, this is where to start looking.
Well done Chase!
