Some of the bigger calls for how far the yen will fall, from the past few days, via Bloomberg:

  • Societe Generale Albert Edwards says USD/JPY could reach 145 by March 2015
  • “Once you start to push on the dam, there’s enough pressure and it starts to break, you can create these explosive moves in terms of the water cascading lower,” Sebastien Galy of SocGen in New York “It can get uncontrolled and some of the moves that we’ve seen in the yen don’t seem to be normal moves in the sense that they’re very aggressive.”
  • BNP Paribas’s chief Japan economist says the yen may fall below 120 per dollar early next year, which will “spur talk” of a slump to 130 in late 2015, and 140 the year after. “The BOJ began financial repression earlier than anticipated, so yields will be held down even if inflation rises,” Kono said. “Real yields will continue to fall lower from zero, accelerating yen weakness.”
  • Barclays one-month forecast is 118 – now sees 120 in three months, according to strategists Shinichiro Kadota and Jose Wynne
  • Danske Bank yesterday revised its one-month forecast to 117 from 108, and shifted its 12-month forecast to 124 from 114
  • Axel Merk, president and founder Merk Investments LLC: “I’ve said all along that Abe is likely to double down when his policies aren’t effective, and this just shows it. They’re shooting down the yen and nothing is working, we’re not getting economic growth. All our tactical models are short the yen.” Merk forecast a decline to beyond 145 per dollar.