–Ex Auto & Gas +0.4%; Autos +5.0%, Gasoline +0.8%
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. October retail sales report was
stronger than expected overall but category gains were erratic and real
growth might be far less than the headline number suggests.
October retail sales printed +1.2% in a fourth good monthly gain,
but setting Q4 up for decent growth. But ex-auto sales was just +0.4%,
and ex- autos and gas was +0.4%.
Most data were better than expected, though the breakdown does not
suggest a surging economy. Also, September and August sales were revised
higher, suggesting Q3 consumption could be revised up.
Sales were strong in building materials at +1.9% (in a recent trend
higher), clothing at +0.7%, sporting goods at +1.0%, and phone/Internet
+0.8%. But they were weak in health care at -0.1%, furniture -0.7%, and
electronics -0.7% (offsetting a jump in September) for a mixed bag.
Autos were up 5.0% and gasoline +0.8%, suggesting the new model
year and higher fuel prices helped sales.
The mixed reads for categories suggest the consumer remains
somewhat cautious and prone to offsetting splurges in one area with
spending cuts elsewhere.
Overall, though, October represents a good start for Q4, and with
holiday sales ahead there is a good chance that overall growth will
accelerate as the period unfolds. But the outcome for Q4 depends most
importantly on whether the consumer buys more consistently during the
holidays.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MT$$$$,MAUDR$]
