ANZ painting a picture of conflicting influences on the oil price going forward
In brief analysts there highlight:
We expect a net production increase of 600k bbl/d in H2 2018, because many members are unable to increase production.
- This increase comes at the cost of spare capacity, falling to the uncomfortable level of 1.4m bbl/d. Further, talks of Saudi Arabia increasing its production by 2m bbl/d mean spare capacity would diminish to zero, which is unlikely. We see a higher probability of the US easing its sanction on Iranian oil.
OPEC supply still susceptible to further disruptions (in Angola, Iran, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela)
US crude oil inventory falls have been faster than expected in recent weeks
- The trade war could slow global economic growth, and thus the oil demand. Demand growth decelerating to 1mb/d should be considered negative for prices