Quick comments from ANZ on next week's Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (announcement due at 0100GMT on 27 March 2019)

  • Expectations are that it will hold.
  • Growth is stable; but, given that GDP was 0.6% q/q, below the RBNZ's expectation of 0.8%, we think the central bank will acknowledge softer growth through a slightly dovish tone.

And, on the NZD:

  • The NZD is showing surprising resilience. While it is no longer trading above USD0.70, it has substantially outperformed its peers. We do not see this as sustainable.
  • Like the AUD, there is little domestic story to justify the strength, and the global story is challenging in the medium term. We think conditions are in place for the NZD to fall below fair value in 2019.

(ANZ nominate fair value at 0.62)