That's a whopper
We're not going to get the first look at Q2 GDP until late July so it's probably far too early to be reporting on a GDP tracker. The reality is that it's heavily reliant on April data at the moment and that's going to be the low point. As we get more May and June data, this number will start to tick up.
Still, it's an eye-watering number and whatever reading we get in July is going to be ugly. This latest number comes after yesterday's estimate of -40.4%.
After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from -43.3 percent to -56.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 0.73 percentage points.
The consensus is around -30%. Also note these are annualized contractions so you need to divide by 4 to get the actual contraction.
