The AUDUSD continues to hold below the 100 hour MA (bluel line in the chart above) at the 1.0265 level. This is helping to keep the bears in charge, but there is a little battle going on as the price is back above the 100 day MA (blue line in the chart below) which is at the 1.0245 level. Yesterday the price closed just below this MA level on the daily chart. A close above it today should solicit more covering. However, if resistance above cannot be breached on the hourly, it is all for naught and the battle will continue (i.e. look for a break above or below).

Admittedly, the failure to follow the EURUSD higher is a concern but the EURAUD shorts continue to plow upwards. So pay attention to the levels and let “the market” decide. Look for the break or down and follow through momentum.

Upside targets:
1.02918 – 38.2% of the move down from September 28th
1.0326 – 50% of the move down from September 28th, 200 hour MA (green line on hourly) is 1.0330. The low from October 1st is 1.0324. Key target above.

Downside targets on a break back below the 100 day MA at 1.0245:

  • 1.0230 – reestablished trend line after failed break below on the hourly chart
  • 1.0203 – Double lows from yesterday (see hourly)
  • 1.01809 – Low from yesterday.
  • 1.01637 – Low from the month of September