AUD/USD has traded in a 40 pip range this morning, without troubling either side of its short term range. The RBA decision will be announced in a little under an hour, with the market pretty evenly divided still on whether we get a 25 bps cut or not.
If rates are cut, and presuming we are still trading near 1.0240, we can expect AUD/USD to fall around 50 pips towards 1.0200. The market is slightly favouring this course of action so we might see a sell-rumour-buy-fact scenario emerge.
The reaction is likely to be greater if there is no cut. EUR/AUD is close to support levels and could break lower and there is no substantial resistance in the AUD/USD until 1.0330, 90 pips away.
